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Friday, October 29, 2010

2010 Election Predictions

The 2010 elections seems to be one that will go down in history as one of the most significant, if not the most significant election in our lifetime. Up to 100 seats in the House of Representatives are in play, virtually all currently held by a democrat. I don't think Republicans will win all of them, however, at this point it's virtually a given that in late January 2011, the Speaker of the House will be Ohio Congressman John Boehner.

In the senate, it's a much more difficult predication. With the once "filibuster proof" majority Democrats had, (until Senator Brown from Massachusetts had a say in that) it still seemed nearly impossible Republicans could regain the Senate. It now appears they could reclaim the senate, and possibly gain 10 or more seats.

My Prediction:

In the House of Representatives, Republicans will gain 60-85 seats giving them roughly a 20-45 seat majority. John Boehner will be Speaker of the House. Since all seats in the house are in play (every two years they are) I won't make a prediction on who win's in a particular district, but, I do have some seats I will be watching on Tuesday evening, later in the article.

In the Senate, it's too close to call who will have the majority. The control will be within the range of 47-53 which means I predict at least 6 pickups for Republicans, and possibly up to 12, however, I have no idea who will be in charge of the Senate in late January. Democrats have the advantage in controlling the Senate, but, the GOP could control it too.

What Seats to Watch For On Tuesday:

In the Senate, here are the big races I'll be watching. Note: (*) indicate incumbents, (~) indicates seat held by that candidates party.

1.  Reid (D)* vs Angle (R) Nevada

Talk about a power shakeup. It would show the true power of the Tea Party Movement if the Tea Party endorsed, Sharron Angle, defeats the number 1 Democrat in the Senate. Also watch for voter fraud by SEIU and the voting machines. As I reported via twitter, SEIU controls the voter machines in Nevada.

2. Toomey (R) vs Sestak (D)~ PA,  Murray (D)* vs Rossi (R) WA, Manchin (D)~ vs Raese WV

The reason why all three of these races are tied for second place is because, if the GOP wants to have a chance to control the Senate, it needs to win all three of them. If they lose WV or PA early into the evening, then the Senate will probably be in Democratic control. If the GOP win these three, the next important race would be Boxer (D)* vs Fiorina (R) in California for the control of the Senate.

Best of the Rest: Miller (R)~ vs McAdams (D) vs Murkowski (Write In)*

On Wednesday, this seat will be won by a Republican, the question remains who? The fiscally conservative, and primary victorious Joe Miller, or the moderate Lisa Murkowski, who daddy gave the seat to her, and it appears she just can't give it up yet.

Honorable Mentions: Florida (another person couldn't stand to lose his control. Say hello to new Senator Rubio, he'll be a name to remember), Connecticut (probably will be won by Democrats), and Delaware (again, probably a Democratic victory).

House of Representatives:

1. Grijalva (D)* vs Mcclung (R) Arizona 7

If the long time progressive Congressman Raul Grijalva loses his seat to the young Ruth McClung, that would be interesting.

2. Frank (D)* vs Bielat (R) Massachusetts 4

It's going to be a really long night for Democrats, if the congressman who ruined the economy, yet, can blame it on everyone else loses his liberal district. Republicans may win over 100 seats if they win this one.

3. Perlmutter (D)* vs Frazier (R) Colorado 7

The fairly new district was originally held by a Republican, but has be in control by the Democrats since. This district surrounds Denver and goes East into Adams County. The district seems to mostly be however, Ryan Frazier is holding a slight lead. If Ryan wins, remember that name. He could be the "Marco Rubio" of the House.

Best of the Rest: I'll just quote Geroge F. Will's Article:
-South Carolina Rep. John Spratt [SC-5], second-ranking Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, is seeking a 15th term. Missouri Rep. Ike Skelton [D-MO 4], chairman of Armed Services, is seeking an 18th term. Texas Rep. Chet Edwards [TX-17], 13th-ranking Democrat on the Appropriations Committee, is seeking an 11th term. Minnesota Rep. James Oberstar [D-MN 8], chairman of the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, is seeking a 19th term. In 2008, they won by 25, 32, 7 and 36 percentage points, respectively. In 2010, all are vulnerable, so voters in four districts could subtract 118 years of seniority.
-For 55 years, Rep. John Dingell (D-Mich.) [15th District], 84, has occupied the seat his father held for 22 years before him. The son received 71 percent in 2008. His district includes Ann Arbor, which requires conservatives to leave town at sundown. (Just kidding. Sort of.) He beat his 2008 Republican opponent by 46 points. Dingell probably will win while setting the 2010 record for the largest shrinkage of a 2008 majority.
-Rep. Gene Taylor (D-Miss.) [4th District], who got 75 percent in 2008, voted against Obamacare and is the only Democrat who has signed the discharge petition that would allow the House to vote on repealing the law. He lost his house to Hurricane Katrina and may lose his quest for a 12th term.
-Rep. John Salazar (D-Colo.) [3rd District], whose younger brother was a Colorado senator before becoming interior secretary, won in 2008 by 22 points. In Congress, Salazar has opposed cap-and-trade and TARP and supports a one-year extension of all the Bush tax cuts. The National Rifle Association has endorsed him. Nevertheless, he may lose.
Note: Information within [brackets] was added by me.

Wild Card:

Don't forget, most politics is local, and with the 2010 Census, most, if not all districts will change by 2012, so local is just as important as national. The one "local" election I'll be watching will be the Gubernatorial election in Colorado.

Tom Tancredo, entered the race as a third party candidate (American Constitutional Party) claiming Republican Dan Maes, and John Hickenlooper were far too liberal. Tancredo almost guaranteed a Democratic victory because he started by polling with 13% voting, most being taken away from Maes. Now, Tancredo is in second with 42% of the vote, 5 points behind Hickenlooper at 47% (Maes at 5%) via Rasmussen.

Can another fiscally conservative candidate pull it off, or will it be another NY-23 from 2009?

Final Word:

These elections will send a clear message to Washington. We are tired of lies, bribes, massive debt, and false Hope and Change. I'm exactly 1 month shy of being eligible to vote this cycle, however, this is probably the most important mid-term election ever. Voter fraud is out of control, and people seem desperate to stay in power. Our country is at stake, and Republicans taking over will not solve the problem. We have to hold every politician accountable, if we are to restore the Republic.

Christian N.

Follow me on Twitter to get live results on the elections on Tuesday, and other political coverage.

  1. http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/7671/votingbooth.jpg
  2. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_governor_elections/colorado/election_2010_colorado_governor
  3. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/29/AR2010102905734.html
Note: Article edited on 10/31 at 11:30 pm to include other elections from George F Will's article

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